CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-22T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33529/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the SW by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-09-22T21:36Z. The source of this event is an M3.7 flare and filament eruption from S23E65 beginning at 2024-09-22T21:12Z. This flare is seen clearly in SDO AIA 94 and 131, and the filament material is seen best in SDO AIA 304. Field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, and GOES SUVI 284 along with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131. This filament appears to deflect towards the SW as it progresses as seen in GOES SUVI 304. A faint EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 also appears to expand more to the west.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-25T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-09-23T00:31Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1195
Longitude (deg): E45
Latitude (deg): S29
Half-angular width (deg): 47

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Duty Forecaster

Lead Time: 41.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-09-23T18:52Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement